![]() ![]() With a late lead in the polls, he decided to try to run out the clock in Iowa by skipping Thursday’s debate. After months of jetting out after rallies instead of bunking on the road, he’s staying in Iowa hotels to show commitment to the caucus process. Beneath the belligerent tweetstorms, he softens his tone when it suits him, like during presidential debates. Shrewd opponents will pick up on these tactics, so it helps to be able to change gears on a dime. You play fast (or loose) when your rivals are cautious, and slow down if they’ve gone kamikaze. One of the basic axioms of poker is to play against the flow of the table. You rarely see him commit chips to an issue when he doesn’t sense an advantage, and he redirects dicey topics toward friendlier ground. It’s why he dodges policy debates, campaigns in bumper-sticker platitudes and chews up time talking about his glorious poll numbers. Trump might deride this as “sad!” or “weak,” but he puts the adage into practice. Strong players are more aggressive when they have position and prudent when they don’t. “Position” is a poker concept that refers to the order of betting: it’s an advantage to act last. Did anyone else think the “low energy” tag would dog Jeb Bush for months? Or that raising the question of Ted Cruz’s citizenship would trigger Cruz’s late struggles? It doesn’t matter that Trump has a weak hand on the citizenship issue it still knocked Cruz off balance. Trump is a master of finding an opponent’s soft spot and attacking it relentlessly. You don’t need a strong hand to take a big pot you just have to sense weakness in your opponent and concoct a strategy to exploit it. This axiom is a corollary to the principle of aggression. As a result, most of his opponents have decided that it’s safer to fold than to risk it all - and the timid approach left Trump in the catbird seat. He likes to invoke the ghosts of former Texas governor Rick Perry, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham and other vanquished foes to remind rivals what happened to the last guys who took him. Trump is the most aggressive candidate in the field, a schoolyard bully who drops his gloves at the slightest perceived threat and never lets the matter drop. You can’t control the cards you’re dealt, so poker wizards apply relentless pressure on their opponents. There are two ways to win a pot in poker: hold the best hand at showdown, or force your opponent to fold. His erratic behavior makes it difficult for opponents to formulate a plan of attack. On the surface, Trump’s campaign seems guided more by emotion than reason, though clearly there’s a method to the madness. For obvious reasons, Trump presents a similar problem for his political rivals. Card sharks vary their play to keep opponents guessing. Start with a paradox: poker is a contest of reason, but a perfectly rational opponent is relatively easy to exploit. Here’s how the principles of Texas Hold ‘Em explain Trump’s early success: ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |